India’s dream of becoming a Super Power will remain a dream forevermore if it does not overhaul its manufacturing sector and brings it at least at par (if not better than) with China. 2020-29 should be the decade when India makes a firm resolve of establishing itself as a “shopping mall” for the Third World.
This should obviously go hand in hand with opening up the economy further and becoming the number one “market” for developed countries. India needs to bring about structural changes and increase the competitiveness of domestic producers, to enable them to compete with multinational corporations.
Africa and Latin America will become a battlefield for countries like USA and China as the middle and upper middle-class are set to grow at unprecedented numbers in these developing countries (like India). Following is a list of objectives that must be fulfilled by India to grab this market from China and USA as it presents itself by the end of the first half of this decade i.e. 2024-25 :
Manufacture cheapest commodities in large numbers, rather than best quality products in small numbers.
India should target specific sub-sectors and flood Third World countries with those products. Govt of India can gradually work on improving the quality of the products as scaling issues are resolved and demand increases over time.
One must keep in mind that product doesn’t mean only consumer durable, daily accessories or groceries — this is an inclusive term which encompasses everything from defense equipment, agricultural produce, cosmetics, raw materials and everything in between.
To penetrate into those target markets, Govt of India needs to assign double duty to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and ensure that mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreements are signed at a fast pace between India and its clients. There is also a less popular option of Compound FTAs or FTA Clusters, wherein multiple countries (usually from the same region) are clubbed together and a trade deal is worked out between them. The clock is ticking and we need to hurry before its too late…
Now regarding the reciprocals — what do those countries get in return by granting market access to India and why should they choose India?
There needs to be a concrete road map for every proceeding. Reciprocals are always heavily negotiated and rightly so. India needs to offer something that no other country can offer. Something that Third World Countries can accept without having to barter their sovereignty in return. That would be educational infrastructure, synonyms currency acceptance, visa-free travel, labor deals, access to Indian equity markets and most importantly — lending soft power among other things. How do we lend soft power?
We can lend our soft power by establishing a cultural and social connection with the client state. For example : boosting their entertainment industry growth by letting them use Indian expertise, resources and commercial assurance. This can be coupled with language diplomacy wherein India offers to train their unskilled labor force for a negligible cost if they agree to learn an Indian language like Hindi or Tamil [ these are subjects which I’ll discuss in great detail in the future in separate blogs]. This is just a brief overview of what the plan would like on first glance. There’s lot more to it.
India becoming a Super Power is just a matter of time but we have to cross the red lines set by the elite western club to make our presence felt. Think of India as a politician and the rest of world as voters. Only those politicians succeed in elections, who are able to win the trust of the voters and to win their trust, the politician needs to go out of his way and present herself as a solution provider. She needs to work for the people, chalk out a sound campaign strategy and an attractive manifesto. Only then will she be able to build up her credentials and position herself as a strong contender for the incumbent seat.
Unlike other major world powers, India needs to adopt a “level-playing field” approach and make the developing countries accept India as the natural leader of the pack. Foreign Policy can be advanced very effectively without infringing the sovereignty of other nations. All it needs is good research, swift plan of action and a hunger for innovation. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Geopolitics is a complex 4D Chess game and believe me we haven’t scratched the surface yet. I’ve tried to keep this as layman-friendly as possible. More to come…
